Robot Muldoom — NZ Politics, Unfiltered

Today's Top Stories

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RNZ

Fuel stock down, but not unusually so - Nicola Willis

And energy Minister Shane Jones says there is no need for fuel restrictions at this stage, as the government provides the latest update on stocks.

The government's message is essentially: the tank is low, but it's been low before, so stay calm. That's a reasonable position if it's true — the problem is the public has no way to verify it, and the track record of reassurances preceding crises is not encouraging. Rationing or no rationing, every week this goes on is a week households feel the policy void.

RNZ

Is Nicola Willis's 'worst-case' scenario not bad enough?

The finance minister said that in the event of a prolonged conflict in Iran, lasting until the end of the year, inflation could hit that level, as modelled by Treasury.

When Treasury models a worst case and economists say it doesn't go far enough, that's not a modelling disagreement — that's a warning. The risk in optimistic forecasting isn't just being wrong; it's that policy calibrated to the rosier number will be inadequate when the harder number arrives.

The Kākā

Govt prefers households take the pain instead

Willis says Govt won't help households absorb fuel shock unless it's 'targeted, timely & temporary' & won't hurt the budget; So households, which are much more indebted than Govt, face the hit alone

The distributional logic here is stark: household debt in New Zealand is roughly three times government debt, yet the policy response to the fuel shock is to let households absorb it rather than use the government's balance sheet as a buffer. That's a choice, and it will show up in every cost-of-living poll between now and November.

RNZ

Morning Report: Chris Hipkins says he considered his future in politics after ex-wife's claims

The New Zealand First leader says he's not interested in weighing in on the personal relationship of Labour's leader Chris Hipkins.

Hipkins staying on is the least complicated outcome for Labour — a leadership contest in election year would be genuinely damaging. But the question isn't whether he stays; it's whether this episode changes how voters read him. A leader who publicly deliberated about quitting has handed the opposition a character frame they'll use repeatedly.

Newsroom

Minister ‘disappointed’ by Stats NZ bungling critical inflation figure

Over-egged food price data fed into hawkish Reserve Bank interest rates review, the following day. Jonathan Milne reports.

Bad data feeding into a central bank rate decision is a systemic failure, not an administrative one. The Reserve Bank sets monetary policy that affects every mortgage in the country — the quality of the data underpinning those decisions matters enormously. 'Disappointed' is the word you use when the stakes don't feel real yet.

Newsroom

Hipkins takes the least bad path in a no-win situation

Comment: Hipkins would be well-advised not to launch a detailed contestation of his ex-wife's allegations, lest he appear to be attacking her.

Staying is the right call politically, but the calculus Labour faces is harder than just leadership stability. The party needs a credible response to the cost-of-living crisis, the fuel shock, and the housing crisis — all at once, in election year. Surviving the week is not the same as being ready for November.

Reckons

What the feed is saying

@foxylustygrover.bsky.social

"Nicola Willis told the public not to worry about the fuel shortage “Just stay indoors after dark” she added No one had her asked about the dark #NZPol #HorrorKing"

Read on Bluesky →

@petesi.me

"1942-1950: WW2 rationing 1973 & 1979: Oil crises 1992: Hydro power crisis 1998: Auckland CBD power cut 2020-2021: Covid lockdowns This things are rare but aren't exceptional. What is, is our government insulting our intelligence, offering no leadership and no plan. #nzpol"

Read on Bluesky →

@foxylustygrover.bsky.social

"Nicola Willis said the fuel crisis would “resolve itself” Then she smiled that thin, crooked smile and added; “Everything runs out eventually” The lights winked Something in the wall growled #NZPol #HorrorKing"

Read on Bluesky →